Are Homes Actually UNDER-Valued?

We have been barraged with headlines and news stories telling us that home values will continue to soften for the next several quarters. Some experts are predicting that today’s values will drop and not be seen again until the middle of 2012 at the earliest. We concur with these estimates based on the current demand for housing in relationship to current supply of both the visible and the shadow inventory of houses. Here we are discussing ‘market value’.


However, there is another way to value residential real estate. Housing analysts look at the ratio between current wages and sales prices. They use a multiplier to determine how much home the average buyer can afford and compare that to the average price at which a home sells. DSNews just ran an article on this subject. They stated:

The sharp fall in residential property prices in the third quarter means that housing in the United States has become even more undervalued, according to the analysts at Capital Economics.

Based on the latest S&P Case-Shiller index, Capital Economics has concluded that house prices are now 17 percent undervalued relative to disposable income per capita. Housing has never before looked as undervalued, the firm pointed out in a research note released to DSNews.


Looking at the data included in the index compiled by the Federal Housing Finance Agency (FHFA), residential home prices are 14 percent undervalued, which is also a record, according to Capital Economics.

The National Association of Realtors (NAR) has their own Housing Affordability Index. According to NAR:

The affordability index measures whether or not a typical family could qualify for a mortgage loan on a typical home. A typical home is defined as the national median-priced, existing single-family home as calculated by NAR. The typical family is defined as one earning the median family income as reported by the U.S. Bureau of the Census. The prevailing mortgage interest rate is the effective rate on loans closed on existing homes from the Federal Housing Finance Board and HSH Associates, Butler, N.J. These components are used to determine if the median income family can qualify for a mortgage on a typical home.

In their article, DSNews also addresses the NAR index:

The housing affordability index from the National Association of Realtors (NAR) remains close to its record high. Capital Economics explained that NAR's affordability assessment indicates that a median income household with a 20 percent down payment can now more easily afford the monthly mortgage payments on a median-priced home than at any time in the last 30 years.

By each of these historic measurements, homes are at all time values!!

Bottom Line

Lack of consumer confidence has caused many buyers to refrain from taking advantage of the golden opportunities that exist in housing today. However, buyers should look at COST (price and interest rate) not just price. People who purchase today will reap the reward of buying an undervalued asset and should enjoy excellent appreciation when inventory levels return to normal levels.

If you're not looking for a home right now.....why not? You're missing out! If you currently own a home, have you thought about the possibility of "moving up." There are excellent opportunities everywhere!

Reason #46 as to Why It's Important to Purchase Title Insurance

When purchasing a home in Georgia, it is standard that the title be conveyed by a general warranty deed. In fact, the standard Georgia contract reads under paragraph 8 regarding Title:

"A. Warranty: Seller warrants that at the closing Seller will convey good and marketable title to said Property by general warranty deed ......"

But when it comes to purchasing a foreclosure/bank-owned property, the seller typically only provides a special (or limited) warranty deed. They will normally either make the change on the Georgia contract or have the buyer sign off on their bank addendum that advises of the change in the type of deed. Before you sign off on it, make sure you know the difference:

Under a General Warranty Deed, the seller warrants title to the property since the dawn of time. If there is a defect, regardless of the cause, the buyer has the option of proceeding after the seller for any resulting damage. Under a Limited or Special Warranty Deed, the seller is only warranting the title during the period of their ownership. They do not warrant anything that may have happened in the backchain of the title.

This may panic you at first, but this is where the importance of title insurance comes in. If a blemish on the title came up after closing and it was something that was prior to the bank's ownership of the property, then you would be S.O.L. (pardon my french, but it's the best way to put it!); however, IF you purchased title insurance, then you could file a claim under the policy. See why it's important to purchase title insurance? I always tell my buyers that title insurance isn't like when you purchase an electronic at Best Buy and they offer you the extended warranty for an additional fee - I think most of us turn that offer down. This is SO much more important than an extended warranty! You may think that title issues are rare, but come sit down with me and I'll share some of the horror stories with you.

Title insurance is a one time premium that is paid at closing (factored into your closing costs) and it protects you for as long as you or your heirs own the property. The cost varies based on the value of the property, but it's not a large expense and is so incredibly worth it. Depending on the policy, it can cover things like: sudden appearance of unknown heirs claiming interest in the property, forged deeds or impersonations, incorrect legal descriptions, improper recording of deeds, etc.

20,000 Houses will Sell This Weekend.....Will Yours?

There is no doubt that demand for housing has slowed. The National Association of Realtor's 3rd Quarter Existing Homes Sales Report showed that sales were down in all fifty states and the District of Columbia (3rd quarter vs. the 2nd quarter). The decline was in double digits in all but two states (Nevada and California). Those are the facts.

But let us not allow the facts to get in the way of the truth. The truth is that over 4 million homes will have sold in this country by the end of the year. That averages out to be over 10,000 houses a day! Every day – 365 days a year!

Houses are selling. The question is will your house be one of the 10,000 that sell today. That is entirely up to you. You and your family can move on with your plans and dreams immediately. You just have to be willing to price the house at what today's purchaser is willing to pay. Will you be able to sell it for what it would have sold for in the past? Probably not. Will you be able to sell it for the price you had desired? Probably not.

You must weigh the cost of selling today (a reduced profit on your home) against the cost of not getting on with your life. There is no doubt that money is important to everyone, especially today. Being able to follow your plans and dreams is also important however. Don't allow money to ultimately control that decision.

Decide what is best for you and your family – AND DO IT!!

We can show you how. A few times a week we sit down with homeowners and give them the info they need to make a decision. Just last night we delivered some heart-breaking news that the $40,000 the homeowner had put down on the home four years ago has been eaten up by the market's depreciation. There are always other things to take into consideration, however. There's opportunity in Florida, her next destination, where she will likely be able to buy a "dream home" for $150,000 vs. the price tag of $350,000 three years ago. Let us help you make one your most important decisions!

Spreading Holiday Cheer - Holiday Events this Weekend

Ok, so the holiday spirit is coming out in us! Just for a minute we're not going to talk about Real Estate!

We wanted to let you know of some fabulous local events to celebrate the Christmas season. Since we live in Fayette and Henry Counties, we're highlighting events in these areas. If you know of anything else good, please leave a comment so we can share.

1. Fayetteville's Christmas ParadeThis Saturday, December 4th, at 4:30 up and down the sidewalks of downtown Fayetteville. The tree-lighting and festitivities will take place at 6:00 on the square. Heritage Christian Church (right downtown) will have costumed Dicken's characters handing out warm chestnuts. There will also be free hot cocoa and Santa carriage rides from 7:00-9:00.

2. McDonough First United Methodist's Christmas Tour of Homes
This Saturday, December 4th, starting at 10:00am and ending at 3:00pm. Tickets can be purchased online at http://mcdfirst.org/tour-of-homes.html or in person at the Church the day of, located at 151 Macon Street in McDonough (just off of the square). Tour private owned decorated homes all around McDonough. The cost is $10. Once you purchase a ticket, you are given tickets and a list of the homes with directions. You drive from home to home and take the tours at your leisure anytime between 10-3. Did we say we weren't going to talk about Real Estate......ooops! You can bet we're going to look at these homes.....not just because we love houses, but even us Realtors need some holiday enjoyment too!

3. The Avenue Shopping Center in Peachtree City
Every Sunday between Nov 28-Dec 19, The Avenue hosts photos with Santa and horse drawn carriage rides for free. If there's inclement weather, Santa will be in the Joe Muggs coffee shop inside the book store in the shopping center. The Avenue is also decorated so pretty during this time of year. Mix in some shopping while you're there!

4. Our Coldwell Banker Bullard Offices Participate in Toys for Tots
If you participate in Toys for Tots, or would like to, our offices are drop centers for the toys. The Marines will be picking up on December 29th so anytime between now and December 18th you may drop off a new and unwrapped toy. I am told the greatest need right now is for children ages 0-2 and ages 10-13. A list of our office locations can be found at http://www.cbbullard.com/offices.html . You can also drop off at any Publix Grocery store location if that's more convenient.

Difference Between a "White Lie" and "Lying"

When Rebekah & I were growing up our parents instilled in us the value of telling the truth. We were told the story of "The Boy Who Cried Wolf" over and over and I (Melissa) share that with my children now. Our parents had no tolerance for lying. With that said, there was always this gray area of "white lies." According to our friends and even some teachers, it was ok to tell a "white lie" so long as no one got hurt. It was hard to discern why that was ok, but plain out "lying" wasn't (a lie is a lie right)? Now that I'm older, I think I understand now.


If a husband or wife asks if it is okay to invite their parents over for dinner, the spouse would probably say 'sure' even if it wasn't 100% the truth. That was a 'white lie'. If a young boy dresses up as a monster on Halloween and asks his father if he looks 'really scary', it was okay for his dad to say 'YES'! That was a 'white lie'.

In both cases, the person telling the 'white lie' was saying what the other person wanted to hear. In both cases, there was no harm in not telling the 100% truth. In both cases, it was a 'white lie'. However, if we are not telling the 100% truth in order to save someone's feelings AND IT HURTS THEM, we are lying.

Why am I bringing this up in today's blog?

I believe there are still some in the real estate industry more worried about a homeowner's feelings than they are about telling the truth about the current value of their home. These agents are not necessarily malicious. They just realize they may disappoint a seller at a listing appointment by telling the truth about what the house will sell for. They find it difficult to deliver tough news. To make sellers feel better, they lie and sometimes they do it just to get the listing!

Good agents can deliver good news. Great agents know how to deliver tough news.

In today's real estate market, YOU NEED A GREAT AGENT. You need an agent that will tell you the truth, even when you don't want to hear it. You need an agent more worried about your family than they are about your feelings. You need an agent who can get the house sold! That's us. We have disappointed people by telling the truth. We have hurt people in their pockets by telling the truth. At the same time, we've helped dozens of families by telling the truth and we've moved them to the next chapter in life by telling the truth. It is always the right thing to do in our eyes. In the end, they always understand why we did what we did, even if they didn't like it.

What this means to you

If you are interviewing potential listing agents, demand they tell you the truth. Don't hire the agent that tells you what you want to hear. Hire the agent that tells you what you need to know. Reward their honesty.


 
 
 
 
 
 
 
A portion of this material was taken from: KCM Blog

Why Are Housing Prices Still Falling?

In the past few days, three separate pricing reports showed that national house prices have begun to soften. Altos Research shows that prices fell 3.1% over the last three months. Clear Capital's Home Data Index Market Report shows that prices have fallen 5% in the last quarter. The Zillow Real Estate Market Report shows a 1.2% quarterly decline and a 4.3% yearly decline. Anyone selling a house should understand what is currently happening in the market and what impact certain factors will have on prices over the next six months. Let's look at those factors.


The Expiration of the Homebuyers' Tax Credit

The tax credit was introduced by the administration to stabilize house prices. The TARP Report spells this out quite clearly. The thinking was, if they rewarded purchasers to buy, they could lower the months' supply of housing inventory. By increasing demand and decreasing supply, prices would level off. And they did originally.

However, when they extended and expanded the tax credit earlier this year, the opposite occurred. When buyers came out, more property owners (individual homeowners who had previously held off putting their home on the market and banks with an ever increasing supply of foreclosures) decided that was the time to put their houses up for sale. Instead of lowering supply, it actually increased the supply of homes on the market. Inventory rose and demand faded with the expiration of the tax credit. Larger supplies and less demand will cause prices to fall.

Distressed Properties

Foreclosures and short sales have dramatically affected prices in almost every section of the country. Zillow has reported that 20.1% of all homes sold in September were foreclosures and an additional 27.3% were short sales. A foreclosure, on average, sells for 65% of full value and short sales sell for 85% of full value. Obviously, as more distressed properties sell the more the average sales price falls.

Distressed properties also have a major impact on appraisals. Even if a non-distressed property sells, the appraiser may use distressed properties to determine value in that neighborhood. We can see that distressed properties therefore impact prices even on the non-distressed properties sold.

We will be dealing with this issue for some time while banks clear the inventory of foreclosures they currently own. It was just reported that there is over 40 months of supply we must work through. Increased supply causes prices to soften.

Lack of Consumer Confidence

Many economists believe that the housing recovery depends on resurgence in job growth. It will be difficult for the buying public to have the confidence to make big ticket purchasers (including housing) until they are confident that they can stay employed. Demand will continue to be weak until the economy recovers. Weak demand causes prices to fall.

Bottom Line

Pricing of any item is determined by the ratio of supply and demand. Demand for housing will remain soft until the economy recovers. The months' supply of housing inventory continues to remain too high and is increasingly being made up of distressed properties which are sold at a discounted price. That means that nationally home prices will continue to fall.

Please call or email a Realtor  (preferably us HAHA) to determine how the above issues will impact prices in your area. Make sure they tell you the truth not just what you might want to hear. Only by knowing the truth can you pick the best option for you and your family.


 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Content Taken from KCM Blog

Real Estate in Numbers: Clayton County, Fayette County, Henry County

We previously posted a blog that shows the first quarter numbers versus the second quarter for Clayton County, Fayette County and Henry County. We're a month late, but here's how the third quarter compared:


Notice how in each county listed above, the second quarter numbers are better than the first and third. Wonder why? ...the home buyer tax credit. In order qualify for the credit, buyers had to be under contract by April 30th and closed by June 30th (the close date deadline ended up being extended later on, but originally it was June 30th). With more sales and a higher average sales price, I would say it worked; however, now that it's gone, we're seeing the true colors of the 2010 real estate market. Over to the right of each table, I've included the 3rd quarter numbers for 2009. Remember Melissa's post about waiting until next spring to list your home? This is a clear example as to why that might not be such a bright idea. For the folks who considered putting their home on the market in the 3rd quarter of 2009 but waited until early spring, look at the price differences:

Clayton County 3Q2009 VS 3Q2010: 12.13% decrease in value
Fayette County 3Q2009 VS 3Q2010: 3.15% decrease in value
Henry County 3Q2009 vs 3Q2010: 2% decrease in value

The numbers are clear... values are still declining! So if you're thinking of selling, unless you can afford to wait a few years, now might be the best time to sell. In a few months, the numbers will likely still be declining as our market hasn't hit rock bottom yet.

We can't wait until the day that we can post a blog about the increasing value and appreciation we're seeing across the southern crescent of Atlanta, but until then, we're calling it like we see it!

Will Your House be Worth More in the Spring?



This is a question anyone thinking about selling must ask. Should they sell now or should they wait for the spring? Most years that would be an interesting question. There is a belief that many buyers come out in the spring and, with that increase in demand for housing, prices may appreciate. This year is unlike any year in recent memory. Most experts believe there will be continuing depreciation of home values throughout the next 18 months.


As we posted on recently, there may be a window of opportunity throughout the rest of 2010 as the banks try to straighten out the paperwork on thousands of foreclosures. Once that paperwork is corrected, the flow of distressed properties coming to the market at discounted prices will begin again.

This was mentioned in the latest Home Price Expectation Survey. Robert Shiller, MacroMarkets co-founder and chief economist said this:

 "Over the past month, the average projection for 2010 nationwide home price performance improved slightly among our experts, but for each year thereafter it deteriorated. One plausible explanation for this month's more negative overall sentiment is recent news concerning foreclosure processing questions and the related possibility of extending the supply pipeline."

Other experts are also reporting that prices will soften next year

In October's RPX Monthly Housing Market Report, CEO Michael Feder commented:

"We are at a flex point in housing valuation. With record supply, already paltry demand and systemic threats to a possible correction, we remain terribly concerned about forward home prices.”

The very next day, in a special release, Clear Capital reported a "sudden and dramatic" drop in U.S. home prices:

"Most recent data shows a two-month 5.9% price decline representing a magnitude and speed of decline not seen since March 2009; similar declines for September and October expected to appear in other industry indices in coming months."

Bottom Line
If you plan to sell within the next year, you shouldn't wait for the spring market. Price the home at a compelling price to make sure it sells in the next sixty days.